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Written in response to the stock market crash of the 1970's-and completely updated for today's equally volatile market-this bestselling classic reveals Robert Lichello's revolutionary AIM formula for earning profits in stocks and mutual funds.
- Sales Rank: #798880 in Books
- Published on: 2001-12-01
- Released on: 2001-12-01
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 7.06" h x .90" w x 4.36" l, .34 pounds
- Binding: Mass Market Paperback
- 320 pages
About the Author
Robert Lichello, an award-winning author and broadcaster, has been a newspaper reporter and editor where his financial columns have appeared in numerous national magazines. He is also the author of Super Power Investing. His stock market discoveries have fascinated and enriched two generations of investors.
Most helpful customer reviews
37 of 39 people found the following review helpful.
Boy! I guess I stirred the Pot!!
By A Customer
I've done exactly what you have suggested many times in the past. I'll add up all my buys during a downward slide and come up with an average price. I've added up all my sells during a market climb and averaged the price. Guess what, it's always profitable.
It isn't so much that AIM works better than flawless trading, it's just that it rarely loses money for the user. Of last year's 85 taxable events in my own account only 13 were at a loss. Those losses were very minor. Of the 13 losses 7 were short term losses. Most of the gains are long term most years (think about the tax savings). My porfolio turnover rate was about 28% and my AVERAGE capital gain for 1998 was 38% including all losses.
I don't think Mr. Lichello wanted us to be mindless robots working the market. Nor did he indicate that his method couldn't be improved. Over the course of years, I've taken the basic AIM model and "personalized" it. The simple improvements I've made didn't take a massive amount of skull sweat, and were easily verified as effective when tested by computer spreadsheet (over 18 years of data).
Even further improvements are still under way by others with whom I correspond. Such items as making the various parameter adjustments using an Artificial Intelligence override to continually optimize the settings.
Please look again at the AIM model, not as a straight jacket but as an example of what investing is supposed to be - profitable. It is a risk management model. There's always a balance between risk and reward. If AIM reduces risk, guess what, it probably has a reward penalty as well. Some of us just might be retired and want to moderate our risk and be willing to sacrifice a bit of performance.
Most AIM users with whom I correspond have been happy to modify Mr. Lichello's basic model for their own ways of investing. I think Mr. Lichello's model is a licence to use it as we see fit and not a rigid profile that can't be changed. Try splitting SAFE into two separate components. Give each its own weighting relative to the Resistance to buying or selling you want. Try limiting the total level of Cash Reserve to a percentage of the portfolio's value. Quit selling when the Cash Reserve gets too FAT. Bump Portfolio Control up instead. All these things work.
AIM is a closed loop control algorithm with a positive feedback loop. One can also adjust the rate, reset value, and intensity of the feedback to vary the performance of the model.
I'm not sure a two year period is long enough of a test period to show AIM's potential. Mr. Lichello's hypothetical model uses 16 price cycles to take $10,000 to his million dollar goal. That's more cycles than can be expected in a two year period.
AIM needs to have significant downward price events periodically to restock the shelves with certificates. Since 1982 we've only had three events of any size to generate much buying by AIM. I don't think Mr. Lichello anticipated the 1982 to 1999 bull run when he designed AIM. It's been up to the users to modify AIM for use in a bull market.
Remember, just because AIM doesn't fit with your methods doesn't mean that it doesn't work. If there were to be an arguement brought about in analysis of AIM's activity, it might be the "time-value" of AIM trades has cash being spent a bit early. However, since AIM is being paid for maintaining a cash reserve in the form of interest, this is somewhat nullified.
Thanks for responding to my post. I'm glad to see the critics are up to my challenges! AIM does not violate the principle of Buy Low, Sell High. Most Short Term Traders leave massive amounts of value "on the table" by selling out too soon. I bought VTSS in 1993. As a trader it's offered many opportunities to sell out profitably. However, it's offered very few chances to get back in. Who would have done best? ST Trader? AIMer? Buy&Hold. In that case, Buy & Hold kicks butt. However, I'm still a substantial holder as well. Current profits are about 1300% and I see no reason to end the ride. ST Traders missed most of the ride.
Best regards, oldcat@execpc.com
43 of 49 people found the following review helpful.
A Few Limitations of AIM
By A customer
I initially read the book in the library and then bought a copy. After wading thru the book, which is roughly 60% filler, I decided to keep an open mind and test out his ideas.
After I created my own Excel worksheet for using AIM (Automatic Investment Management), and did some back testing, I learned that AIM will NOT help you if your stock/mutual fund/ETF, over many months: (1) moves up [or down] in a straight line, (2) moves up exponentially, or (3) moves in a thin trading range. In order to get an excellent return, the ideal AIM stock/mutual fund/ETF movement seems to be like a high-frequency and, what I call, "violently cyclical" movement (i.e. up 150% or more [from the previous year, for example] on the up move and down 60% or more [from the previous year, for example] on the down move). While I'm not sure that any mutual fund has this kind of past movement, I don't think any ETF currently available has consistently shown this kind of movement and fewer than 2% of the top 3,500 stocks have in the past 10 years. (While these stocks can exist in several industries, the semiconductor industry appears to be a relatively fertile hunting ground.)
I have not come across any high-frequency, violently cyclical stock (or ETF), in back testing so far, from the period January 1991 to August 2005, that would have taken $10,000 and turned it into $1,000,000 or more, even before all costs. So the title of Lichello's book is misleading in that regard.
My back testing also showed that AIM didn't beat the S&P 500 (not counting dividends, taxes, commissions and interest for both investments) from January 1982 to August 2005, or from January 1991 to August 2005. AIM, under the same conditions as mentioned above, also didn't beat the NASDAQ Composite from January 1991 to August 2005. Having said that, I am willing to give it a shot using a small amount of money for a few months on some specific stocks to see how it goes.
Happy Investing!
22 of 24 people found the following review helpful.
Lichello's system takes the emotion out of investing
By A Customer
I have never done a book review before. But I want to now.
I am grateful that Mr. Lichello wrote this book and am saddened by his passing (February 2001).
I used to plunge in and out of stocks, constantly in a state of near panic, grasping at every hot tip that came along, driving my broker to distraction.
One day I saw a Jane Bryant Quinn column that mentioned something called an "Automatic Investment Method". Shortly thereafter while browsing in a book store, Mr. Lichello's book attracted my attention. The system changed my approach so thoroughly that my broker even started using it for his personal account!!
The beauty of Mr. Lichello's system is that it takes all the emotion out of when to buy and when to sell. It is almost boringly mechanical. You divide your pot of investing money into two piles: one goes into equities (stocks or mutual funds); the other goes into a money market fund. Once a month, you do a simple calculation. If the value of the equities goes up beyond a "trigger point", you sell a little. If the value goes down beyond a "trigger point", you buy a little.
No more plunging in and out. No more anguish over what to do. Most months, you do the simple calculation and you don't make any transactions.
It works best with a high-Beta no-load mutual fund, which is Mr. Lichello's recommendation.
I've done it with individual stocks and that seems to complicate things. For example, gold shares will run counter to the market, and if cyclical and counter cyclical stocks are included in the same portfolio, they will cancel each other's fluctuations. And if the buy or sell signal calls for a small purchase or sale, then you get stuck with small odd lots.
It is also easy to unnecessarily tinker with and complicate Mr. Lichello's system. But once you get into the swing of it, you will consistently sell high and buy low.
Anyway, buy the book and then make a simple paper work sheet with a few columns, following the example, and start in. It's very simple. Takes all the worry out of investing. Just follow the example in the book. Mr. Lichello refined the system in recent editions to consider regular monthly investments, etc. You can set up a separate worksheet for each category of investment portfolio, such as your 401(k), separate stocks, bonds, etc.
There are several Web sites (search for "Lichello") that provide more examples. You can also purchase a computer program to make the simple calculation even easier.
Anyway, buy the book from Amazon so that you don't have to fuss with hunting for it in book stores. And READ the book. STUDY it. Set up the work sheet. Don't complicate the system. And since you are already on line, check out the Web sites.
As one of the other reviewers said, there are other places to check for selecting stocks, such as Value Line. (For a starter, get the $55 intro Value Line subscription with the book "Wall Street Words" as the premium.) Study the charts to figure out why some companies' stock do well and others fail.
But use Lichello's system as the foundation for your investing methodology and teach it to your children, so when they start working, they also will invest without emotional involvement.
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